Coming recession? Shane Jones at UofR

He was able to take a plane to Spain from Britain for two pounds.
I’m sure there will be info that will go over my head at this talk.

How do we rescue European banks?

China may want to own toll roads in other defaulting countries.

He sees a ten to fifteen year timeframe to fix the market.

The bond market in Europe is swinging wildly.

He thinks there will be a fifty percent default in Greece, and probably total.

Stock markets like a quick fix, but there will not be a quick fix now.
Will Greece withdraw from the Euro? They’ll have to. He points out that it’s a tourist destination and not a big exporter.

He doesn’t mind if it’s Dems or Repubs. Who win next year, so long “as it’s a majority” to get things moving.
He thinks Repubs want a recession soon so they can ride incriminating fix it and look like heroes.
Dysfunctional government that won’t work on infrastructure and raise taxes a little to fix things.

Small business is starting to do well in the States.

He sees Canada as the place to make money, there is the most opportunity. Our resources are key.

He says no bubble in real estate in Van., but Toronto has a looming bubble in condos under construction.

Unemployment rate is coming down in Canada.

A major bank may move head office to Calgary.

Interest rates to remain low, so not much to be made in bond markets. Equity long term will outperform bonds for a while.

Emerging markets to recover.

Disclaimer at the end says all of his predictions are to be taken with salt.

With a lack of good credit risks to lend to, the $7.7T from the Fed may not make it far into circulation.

Canadians won’t let their homes go if we get into financial trouble.

Europe is taking things seriously because 2008 was so recent.

He mentioned that GE would bring skilled jobs back to the US if the corporate tax rate were tiny, but earlier he said raising taxes would repair the economy. Presumably raised taxes on citizens are good, and on corporations it’s okay if left minimal.

Keystone pipeline being stopped was a “tragedy”.

He thinks aquifers and oil spill off BC are important problems to avoid. Wished the environmentalists had raised aquifer problem in the US earlier (they had!). He thinks it will be possible to build in places without threatening aquifers (probably not possible given the thousands of leaks from oil pipelines that happened the last decades).

He thinks green initiatives will be off the table in Europe. Germany shutting down nuclear plants, he thinks they won’t replace with coal, maybe with natural gas, but he sees it as an unsolved problem. He doesn’t think windmills are an eyesore, and they provide a lot of power in the UK, but in Canada there is a lot of NIMBYism.

He seems to not connect the employment opportunity of building green infrastructure to the solutions he’s been listing. Need someone to lend money to? We need to rebuild our infrastructure!

3 responses to “Coming recession? Shane Jones at UofR

    • I know, I was thinking the same thing. There’s no accounting for other inputs to the problems that economists and bankers throw solutions at. If the Earth’s ecology was too big to fail, and resources (like natural air) never ran out, then we could accept that they know how to repair faltering economies. The problem is that we don’t live in that world where balance sheets only include dollars. Peoples’ lives and our ecosystems hang in the balance of us acting now, or we miss this opportunity as a species to leave some problems for our future generations to sort out since we don’t have all of the answers right now. Leaving them mass extinctions, mass floodings, and wars is no legacy I want to be accused of leaving behind.

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