What Are Market Predictions?

“Mon, Aug 17, 2015 – 8:15 AM
Bill Baruch, chief market strategist, iiTrader joins BNN to discuss why he’s watching crude oil to move sharply higher today.”
“oil will rally today” is the BNN video title, but I didn’t hear the trader say that, but he did say a rally by midweek. In the video he notes $35 oil is realistic in the near term (which was actually a better prediction), and it will be unlikely to rebound to $60 if production levels stay similar to now.

Crude’s drop below $38 marks ‘epic’ time in the oil market
Published: Aug 24, 2015 11:27 a.m. ET

The MarketWatch graph shows there was no rally on the 17th, oil finished the day down.

Quite the “midweek” “rally”.

In early trade on Monday morning, the price of West Texas Intermediate was down about 5.7% and traded as low as $38.13 a barrel, a new post-financial-crisis low for the commodity that has been getting hacksawed this year.

WTI prices are down about 60% against a year ago, and after finding some stability earlier this year,

If oil gets down to below about $30, the Tarsands are no longer profitable to exploit! No wonder the Premier of Sask is shitting bricks about his bet on oil while totally neglecting renewable energy investments.

Oil Is Not A Four Letter Word

Coal is a four letter word, however.

Perhaps Wall is a bit touchy about fossil fuels because Saskatchewan produces more greenhouse gases per person than any other Canadian province [link added], and is one of only three provinces whose emissions have risen since 1990. The province contains only 1 per cent of the country’s population, but produces a disproportionate 10 per cent of national emissions.

Saskatchewan recorded the highest deposit-paid bottle return rate in Canada (82 per cent) and largest wildfire detection camera system in North America, said the ministry.

Yet we had the worst wildfire season, perhaps ever, this Summer.

Until we get on top of the big industrial emissions we are going to have great trouble achieving the targets that have been set for the province,” said Coxworth.

“We are looking to beef up that part of our portfolio – with a quarter of our power production already renewable,” said Tremblay.

The ministry on Earth Day focused on what individuals can do in their everyday lives.

{Emphasis added, to highlight that what the ministry is doing is pushing responsibility for the problem off of themselves and onto the actions of individuals who cannot individually organize us into a more efficient system.}

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“I wonder if she gets paid.”

I wonder if she gets paid, to ask that.

In the same time frame, Krause received significant funding from the oil, gas and mining industries and has said 90 per cent of her income in 2012, 2013 and 2014 was drawn from speaking fees and honorariums funded by industry sources.

Krause said the “90 per cent” comment was out of context, because she had “zero” income aside from her speaking arrangements. Krause said she earned money by working part-time as a piano teacher, among other things. She said her two most recent speaking gigs were not paid.

I’m not sure Fonda needs the money as badly as Krause makes us out to believe that’s her motivation.

Alberta Getting a Climate Change Plan?

If they enact what is known to be good policy, but the previous government was afraid to do, that’d be a start anyway.

I found it interesting that the newspaper had at least 1 line of comment from many minor party leaders, yet nothing from the PCs! They even had Greenpeace (instead of the Green Party of Alberta); what’s up with that?
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The Hilarious Alberta Election

Last Alberta election it was the ridiculously wrong polling that was the news story.

Then the Wild Rose Party leader switched inexplicably to the PCs, and blew up her political chances in the next few decades. And then the polling was right (or led to the unexpected outcome) and the Alberta NDP are now a majority government.

The PC’s solution to relinquishing power for the first time in decades involves a lot of paper shredders to cover up corruption and make the job more difficult for the incoming NDP.

A friend of mine a couple weeks ago asked me if I’d heard was was going to happen in Alberta. I said no. He said, it’s going to be an NDP majority government. I was skeptical. The day of the election I guessed an NDP minority, at best.

The amount of wounded people talking of moving just because one non-violent political party replaced another, is seriously messed up.

A few closing thoughts on what was an amazing night on Twitter where no disaster took place, aside from the implosion of the PCs, and Prentice’s petulant, post-electoral resignation:

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“Anti-Petroleum” RCMP Explodes Gasoline In Their Cars’ Engines

The RCMP have displayed Climate Change Denial symptoms. This is bad for Canada, because if the police tasked with interfering in climate change related activism do not understand the science that drives the determined actions of peaceful activists, then they’re more likely to act against protesters without a measure of human sympathy.

Remember that RCMP bombed an oil installation just ~15 years ago.

Their lawyer produced evidence that the RCMP bombed a wellsite and that they did it with the full support of the energy company that owned it. The Crown admits the allegations are true.

The Royal Canadian Motorized Police will be seeing you.

ADDED: Some response to the RCMP.

Meanwhile, the NSA continues to break everything, and spy on everyone.

The U.S. National Security Agency has figured out how to hide spying software deep within hard drives made by Western Digital, Seagate, Toshiba and other top manufacturers, giving the agency the means to eavesdrop on the majority of the world’s computers, according to cyber researchers and former operatives.

That long-sought and closely guarded ability was part of a cluster of spying programs discovered by Kaspersky Lab, the Moscow-based security software maker that has exposed a series of Western cyberespionage operations.