The world was about 20% democratic and 80% Dictatorship, and if China becomes a democracy that will have flipped in only 50 years.
Arab world is becoming democratic too.
In ’10 and ’11 it began in Tunisia. Not an oil rich Arab country. Not the poorest either. Decent infrastructure and education relatively.
7:44 The young in Tunisia had economy stacked against them. It was dire, with educated people only getting jobs if father was regime connected. The “wall people”.
Tortured if you complain too much.
HS distinguished graduate Mohammed Aziziae? making about $2/day. In Oct. police took his hand cart. Bribe hadn’t been paid. A couple hours later he want to police station to get his cart probably. He didn’t get it given back, and was humiliated.
He burned himself in front of the station and died three weeks later. It was videoed and went on YouTube.
People watching felt it could have been them. They demanded the fall of the regime, not nicer police or more jobs. BenAli knowing psychology responded. How much fear did he use?
Needs to clear the square to remain threatening. Doesn’t the first month because the soldiers were not under attack.
Can’t make the soldiers murder the kids. They might refuse, and draw the death penalty, so would change sides.
80 murdered, but not in the bright of day. Off camera. Three months.
BenAli ran off to Saudi Arabia for a few hundred million dollars, but his air crew left him there.
Can you imagine Air Force One doing this to Obama?
Three weeks only to take Mubarak down in Egypt. 800 murdered off the square there.
The revolution succeeded but the democracy installed failed.
Egypt threw away that democracy last year. The military helped.
Bahrain crushed the revolution there. Saudi Arabian troops did the killing of protesters there.
8:11 Syria remained peaceful for 7 months. But is a complex disaster.
Deserters started shooting back.
Oct ’11 the civil war began. Tenfold increase in death.
8:27 Filipino revolution based on US civil right movement. Satellite uplink showed the wold.
6 weeks Tianemen Square was held by students.
New troops brought in who’d not mingled with students.
’89 Communists retreat.
… Resulting in a democratic majority world.
Political scientist Erica Chenowich database of revolutions, violent and non violent. Violent ones succeed 30% and with foreign help. Non violent work 60% without outside help.
Democratic outcome, 10% with violent. 60% otherwise.
Literacy is a factor. Understand communications, across the millions. Greek democratic heritage isn’t the key.
Questions: intelligence services play what part?
I asked what the likelihood of a Canadian revolution is. Low.