RoboCalls Resolution? General Election Will Happen

Occupy Regina

It’s time for a wild prediction, based on information I have, interpretation of law and political power, a touch of math, and a hint of guts (plus a reversal of my earlier skepticism in the power of RoboCon). Here’s a potential scenario for how the election fraud scandal the Conservative Party of Canada is embroiled in, may work out over the next year or less. We’re headed for an early General Election! Here’s why…

Do a little catch up reading, if you’re inclined to disagree with what I suggest, unless you know I’ve made an error.

General Elections are initiated when the Head of State, the Queen, has her representative, the Governor General, drop the writ. Typically the writ is dropped when the Prime Minister visits the GG’s residence at Rideau Hall, and requests it be done.

Why would the PM call an election? Two frequent reasons are that their five years in government are up (fixed election date has arrived… not ever happened, right?) or they’ve lost the confidence of the House of Commons. The GG could also drop the writ, just for kicks and giggles, not something they’re known for. The Queen might want that done if it’s shown after a police investigation that the PM or his caucus is so dirty that they conspired to prevent voters from getting to the polls (which seems somewhat unlikely, even given the previous In & Out Election Act conviction of senior Conservatives recently).

How could PM Harper lose the confidence of the House when he has a MAJORITY of the MPs in his party? That’d be unprecedented! Well, we’re into unprecedented territory, boys and girls. There are two possibilities for how Harper could lose, as I see it.

  1. Some of his MPs could go rogue/independent, and turn on whomever more senior than them ordered a sweeping election fraud and tarnished the party’s name (further tarnished, I mean).
  2. There are byelections called in up to 74 of the ridings identified as having had “irregularities” or fraud take place inside them, and the results of the previous election are nullified, leaving empty seats in the House. If the results are cancelled, could that leave seats empty, instead of represented by MPs who were the possible benefactors or even victims of electoral fraud?

    Presently, by the most complete reported fraud list at The Sixth Estate, there are 50 seats for the Conservatives that could be nullified. 24 for the Liberals, Bloc, NDP, and Greens if byelections are held in those ridings too. Any vote in the Commons, minus all of those votes, means the Opposition will win if it votes together against the Government.

    Is it plausible that 74 byelections may be underway before 2013? Will that be enough time for Elections Canada, the RCMP, and any commissioner subsequently hired, to uncover the details of the conspiracy? Will Pierre Poutine be revealed by then, if ever? Note: A cell company should be able to provide police with a triangulated map of where Poutine’s burner phone was carried when left on. {Wouldn’t it be a hoot if Poutine’s calls were made from Parliament, in predictive-homage to Vikileaks?}

So that’s why there could be another General Election, brought about because of a non-confidence vote, because of empty seats, because of byelections, because constituents complained to Elections Canada who is now receptive to reports of fraud, because journalists for the National Post brought up that electoral fraud investigations started in April and May last year, had some new information turn up.

Whew! You follow all that?


The Conservatives in Ottawa were leaning on Guelph Conservative campaign, the one under RCMP investigation right now. Ground Zero for the 2011 election fraud scandal, where Michael Sona slithered out of, and was pitched under the Conservative Campaign Bus (but he stood up and refused to lie down!).

“Agreed — we were told in media training at last Saturday’s Campaign Training session exactly that — ALL media must go through the “press secretary” — in our case, Michael,” Padanyi wrote.

The email exchange also includes a note from Sona urging other campaign insiders to maintain a link with national headquarters.

“I am in National Caucus with the Minister until noon, so I would like until then to be able to see what the PM has to say to us in Cabinet before we submit this article,” Sona wrote.

Bonus: RoboCon search warrant.


14 responses to “RoboCalls Resolution? General Election Will Happen

  1. I believe the scenerio you put forth is highly unlikely. Here are my reasons:

    Election Canada, according to Bob Rae may not have the resourses to investigate this throughly. So eventually this will burn out.

    As for the Queen getting involved, not going to happen.

    As for the Governor General, the office would not interfere and call an election, one only has to go back to 1926 where the Governor General was accused of siding with the Conservatives in the King-Byng Affair by the Mackenzie King Liberals to see why.

    I cannot see one Reform/Conservative crossing the floor.

    As for the Prime Minister calling an election, isn’t going to happen, he will ride this out and hope that this comes a non issue to the Canadian Voter by the next election.

    He could call an enquiry but that is not going to happen either.

    Says a lot about the state of our democracy doesn’t it?

    • Potentially, and an interesting situation. Another would be as superanne suggests below. Or Harper may resign (be forced out)! Then the Conservatives will splinter and collapse. This situation is really quite 1993 in how I perceive it so far.

      One rogue MP from a new party, then Reform, now Green, ushering in a new official party. Bloc rising, but in this case it’s the NDP. Liberals surging… to government (ugh). Conservatives potentially reduced to two seats (ha ha).

  2. I think there’s potential for at least some byelections, AND if this issue continues to show Harper in a spectacularly bad light some of his MPs may bail out under pressure from their constituents. The first one to go could start a little stampede.

    If the House of Commons is rendered unworkable and has lost the confidence of Canadians, the GG may have to step in so we can start over.

    Harper’s weakness is that whatever judgement he has is neutered by ambition; he’s confused about the power a stolen majority gives him, thinking it will make the populace governable. That’s a fairly big error in judgement, and the longer he persists in it the more pissed off and noisy people will be.

  3. I believe that there should a test of severity/damage before a new election would be called.

    Once they get the records and know how many calls were placed in each riding they look at who won and by how much. If an opposition party won there is no sense in having an election because the fraud was unsuccessful. The guilty should still face jail time, fines and IMO have their EDAs de-certified and the past candidate banned from nomination.

    I see the problem that many Greens, Libs and NDP edas are in no way ready to finance another election. Deep pocket Cons can still buy many of these bye elections guilty or not, I wonder if there are any provisions for EC to backstop EDA expenses or force the Guilty EDAs to reimburse afflicted EDAs for their expenses. Could a Lib EDA for example sue its Con counterpart?

    • Elections Canada could presumably set campaign spending limits extremely low, making high cost campaigns impossible, and be prepared to harshly punish over spenders and 3rd parties circumventing the limits.

  4. Pingback: Why RoboCon matters to me, and Conservatives | Saskboy's Abandoned Stuff

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  7. Canadian Cowboy says: “I cannot see one Reform/Conservative crossing the floor.”

    Really? After being muzzled on their pet peeves of small government except for when it comes to the state controlling what happens in the bedrooms of the nation? They might bolt because their pet peeves are not being addressed and they might cover their intentions in the guise of standing up for their constituents due to RoboCalls – when in fact they really just want to protect their incomes and cushy pensions.

    Just a thought (perhaps that’s a wish)

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